Trust metrics are techniques for predicting how much a certain user can be trusted by the other users.CouchSurfing doesn’t really have a prediction mechanism, but trust values are registered for every friendship link.
I never thought the denominators for the trust value made a lot of sense for the friendship links on CS (especially when translated, I don’t really know how to best translate “I somewhat trust this person” into my mother tongue). Still, there seems to be a definite trend of linearly (in time) decreasing trust on the Quality of Service page. It would be interesting to compare this to values from before and do a deeper analysis. The “average quality” doesn’t seem to be changing significantly on the other hand, maybe slightly going up? Possibly because it’s actually visible to the receiver.
Joe Edelman wrote the QoS code, and wrote to me:
Wow, that *is* interesting!
So the avg trust is calculated among introductions added in the last
week that are reported as due to CS and in-person. So it’s not because
of virtual users, and it’s not because CS is accelerating and includes
less pre-existing friends.
The only confounding factor I can think of, is that it doesn’t take the
“date you met this person” field into account — a lot of people don’t
fill it out, or don’t fill it out correctly. So it includes
introductions that are finally being reported from the past, as well as
those that actually occurred that week.
We could be seeing an ever-greater percentage of weirdos from the past.
You know, those random people that blew through a collective, and much
later are friending everyone. And the people they are friending hardly
remember them and so don’t trust them. This would be a result of social
graph “fill-in”, perhaps as a kind of recoil from expansion last summer.
Or, perhaps it’s an accurate result, and as CS grows, people that meet
find they have less in common, since CS includes more demographics.
In that case, it could be interpretted as a *positive* result: perhaps
the ideal would be to take people who DON’T trust each other INITIALLY,
and give them POSITIVE EXPERIENCES such that later they DO trust each
other, or they start to trust other people from a new demographic MORE.
Let’s just hope this trend does not continue. If it would, the average trust would be zero by the end of 2010.
In the meanwhile, some active work can be done on designing and implementing a trust system from scratch on BeWelcome.
The data:
year week introductions users quality trust
2008 16 6625 3890 1.526 0.370
2008 15 14238 7345 1.506 0.377
2008 14 14818 7591 1.490 0.379
2008 13 16520 8201 1.527 0.388
2008 12 13895 6952 1.500 0.387
2008 11 12252 6291 1.479 0.379
2008 10 12303 6490 1.493 0.392
2008 09 12796 6482 1.480 0.382
2008 08 11336 5875 1.483 0.376
2008 07 12484 6408 1.486 0.391
2008 06 11778 6215 1.469 0.409
2008 05 11201 5945 1.453 0.406
2008 04 10570 5998 1.479 0.415
2008 03 10757 5983 1.489 0.410
2008 02 9560 4872 1.503 0.410
2008 01 13972 6425 1.484 0.417
2007 52 7749 4279 1.476 0.414
2007 51 9332 5118 1.467 0.421
2007 50 10975 5500 1.480 0.422
2007 49 10309 5632 1.454 0.415
2007 48 10664 5500 1.454 0.413
2007 47 10335 5734 1.487 0.425
2007 46 10835 5762 1.492 0.429
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